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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 51

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to HOU 12, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.01 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.65 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model