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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 19

Houston Texans 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.22 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model