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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 40

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(3:38) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Brate.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.76 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.55 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model