4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 51

Houston Texans 23 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to TB 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.85 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP