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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 43

Houston Texans 23 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(:28) 9-B.Anger punts 39 yards to TB 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 83-S.Schnell.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +0.93 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 43, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EP