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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 25-P.Barber left end to HOU 11 for 17 yards (39-T.Gipson). PENALTY on TB-18-I.Hyman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 26.

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.62 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model