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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 36

Houston Texans 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:45) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn punts 26 yards to TB 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.96 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.95 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model