Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 96

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to ATL 39, Center-46-M.Orzech. 38-K.Barner MUFFS catch, and recovers at ATL 41. 38-K.Barner to ATL 41 for no gain (40-B.Watson).

The Three Options

GO -4.04 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.81 EP
72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 96, worth -5.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model