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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2019-12-22 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

JAX
27.6%
ATL
72.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Gardner Minshew (JAX): -0.039 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL offense: +0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 18
–
ATL 26
Projected margin: ATL by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

JAX

D.J. Chark WR Questionable Ankle

ATL

James Carpenter G Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 12
–
ATL 24

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:34 TD ATL (11:34) 24-D.Freeman left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – ATL 6
  • Q1 09:34 TD ATL (9:34) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 24-D.Freeman for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – ATL 13
  • Q2 09:17 FG JAX (9:17) 4-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – ATL 14
  • Q2 00:14 FG ATL (:14) 7-Y.Koo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. JAX 3 – ATL 17
  • Q3 02:32 FG JAX (2:32) 4-J.Lambo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 6 – ATL 17
  • Q4 13:41 TD ATL (13:41) 30-Q.Ollison right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – ATL 23
  • Q4 12:08 TD JAX (12:08) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep right to 18-C.Conley for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 12 – ATL 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to ATL 9, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-13-M.Walker.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 87%

    (1:27) 7-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:43) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to ATL 8, Center-46-M.Orzech. 38-K.Barner pushed ob at ATL 20 for 12 yards (42-A.Wingard).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:55) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke pass short right to 22-Co.Davis to JAX 45 for 7 yards (35-J.Carter).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 90%

    (9:17) 4-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 57%

    (5:10) 9-R.Allen punts 39 yards to JAX 1, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-23-B.Hill.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 17 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:58) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to ATL 39, Center-46-M.Orzech. 38-K.Barner MUFFS catch, and recovers at ATL 41. 38-K.Barner to ATL 41 for no gain (40-B.Watson).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (:14) 7-Y.Koo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:48) 9-L.Cooke punts 35 yards to ATL 22, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 65%

    (9:12) 9-R.Allen punts 35 yards to JAX 2, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-23-B.Hill.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 8 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:29) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to ATL 41, Center-46-M.Orzech. 38-K.Barner to ATL 49 for 8 yards (42-A.Wingard; 22-Co.Davis).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (2:32) 4-J.Lambo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 12 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:33) 9-R.Allen punts 47 yards to JAX 26, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at JAX 33 for 7 yards (87-J.Graham).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 37%

    (6:55) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short left to 18-C.Conley ran ob at ATL 34 for 14 yards.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 82%

    (5:45) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep right to 84-K.Cole to ATL 5 for 23 yards (26-I.Oliver).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 7 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

    (4:33) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Chark Jr. (33-B.Wreh-Wilson).