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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 57

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 9-L.Cooke punts 35 yards to ATL 22, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.86 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 57, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model