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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 37

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 9-R.Allen punts 35 yards to JAX 2, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-23-B.Hill.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.35 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP