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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 96

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to ATL 41, Center-46-M.Orzech. 38-K.Barner to ATL 49 for 8 yards (42-A.Wingard; 22-Co.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -3.64 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.00 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 96, worth -5.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -3.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 53, worth -3.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model