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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 9

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 4-J.Lambo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.81 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 9, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP