4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 12 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(6:55) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short left to 18-C.Conley ran ob at ATL 34 for 14 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.42 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model