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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 28

Jacksonville Jaguars 12 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(5:45) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep right to 84-K.Cole to ATL 5 for 23 yards (26-I.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.16 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model