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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 43

Chicago Bears 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(7:45) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to KC 5, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-84-C.Patterson.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.68 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP