Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- KC offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- QB edge to KC: Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.040 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.287 EPA/dropback
- CHI defense: -0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- CHI offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
KC
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 01:37 TD KC (1:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – CHI 0
- Q2 11:46 FG KC (11:46) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 10 – CHI 0
- Q2 00:56 TD KC (:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 16 – CHI 0
- Q3 00:03 FG CHI (:03) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. KC 17 – CHI 3
- Q4 10:11 TD KC (10:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 26-Dam.Williams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 23 – CHI 3
- Q4 01:44 FG KC (1:44) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 26 – CHI 3
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(15:00) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 57 yards to KC 21, Center-48-P.Scales. 17-M.Hardman to KC 30 for 9 yards (24-B.Skrine; 81-J.Holtz).
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Q2 KC 4th & 9 at the 39Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 52%
(11:46) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 41%
(7:45) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to KC 5, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-84-C.Patterson.
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Q3 KC 4th & 5 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 45%
(12:14) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to CHI 5, Center-41-J.Winchester. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 13 for 8 yards (23-A.Watts).
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Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%
(4:33) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short left to 12-A.Robinson (35-C.Ward).
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Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(3:00) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to CHI 39, Center-41-J.Winchester. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 49 for 10 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
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Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 78%
(:03) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 14 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%
(1:44) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 36 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.32 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 60%
(:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short right to 12-A.Robinson [30-A.Brown].