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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 78

Chicago Bears 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 57 yards to KC 21, Center-48-P.Scales. 17-M.Hardman to KC 30 for 9 yards (24-B.Skrine; 81-J.Holtz).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.11 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 78, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 35, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model