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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 29

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(13:41) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.88 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 39, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model