4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
NO Away

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2019-12-22 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

NO
51.0%
TEN
49.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • TEN offense: +0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Ryan Tannehill (TEN) -0.021 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.174 EPA/dropback
  • TEN defense: +0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 25
–
TEN 24
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

NO

Kiko Alonso LB Out Quadricep
Vonn Bell S Out Knee
Larry Warford G Out Knee
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson S Questionable Concussion
Patrick Robinson CB Questionable Calf
Andrus Peat G Questionable Forearm

TEN

Adam Humphries WR Out Ankle
Adoree' Jackson CB Out Foot
Jeffery Simmons DT Questionable Knee
Derrick Henry RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 38
–
TEN 28

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:03 TD TEN (8:03) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – TEN 6
  • Q1 05:00 TD TEN (5:00) 11-A.Brown left end for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – TEN 13
  • Q2 13:41 FG NO (13:41) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 3 – TEN 14
  • Q2 02:34 TD NO (2:34) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 87-J.Cook for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – TEN 14
  • Q3 14:07 TD NO (14:07) 41-A.Kamara left guard for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – TEN 14
  • Q3 07:10 TD NO (7:10) 41-A.Kamara left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 23 – TEN 14
  • Q3 04:36 TD TEN (4:36) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 19-T.Sharpe for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 24 – TEN 20
  • Q3 01:24 TD NO (1:24) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 87-J.Cook for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 30 – TEN 21
  • Q4 07:33 TD TEN (7:33) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 19-T.Sharpe for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-C.Granderson]. Penalty on NO-53-A.Klein, Defensive Holding, declined. NO 31 – TEN 27
  • Q4 02:16 TD NO (2:16) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 37 – TEN 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:07) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to NO 33, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-D.Harris to NO 45 for 12 yards (44-K.Correa). PENALTY on NO-27-D.Washington, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 34.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:52) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to TEN 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 14-K.Raymond to TEN 27 for 14 yards (52-C.Robertson).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 17 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 79%

    (13:41) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:00) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to NO 25, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 23%

    (9:40) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to TEN 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 19 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:46) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to 50, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-D.Harris MUFFS catch, touched at 50, and recovers at TEN 48. 11-D.Harris to TEN 48 for no gain (29-D.Cruikshank).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 13 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 27%

    (6:39) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to TEN 7, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond. PENALTY on NO, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 7.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:40) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to NO 39, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:28) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to NO 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-D.Harris to NO 38 for 8 yards (31-K.Byard, 48-B.Brinkley).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 34%

    (12:38) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to NO 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 18 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:53) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to TEN 46, Center-49-Z.Wood. 14-K.Raymond to NO 42 for 12 yards (27-D.Washington; 48-J.Gray).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 59%

    (4:26) (Punt formation) 7-T.Hill pass incomplete short right to 34-J.Hardee.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 41 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 52%

    (1:52) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 19-T.Sharpe (21-P.Robinson).