Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:07) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to NO 33, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-D.Harris to NO 45 for 12 yards (44-K.Correa). PENALTY on NO-27-D.Washington, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 34.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.61 EP
65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model