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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 69

Tennessee Titans 14 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(12:00) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to NO 25, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.09 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 69, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 27, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model