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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 53

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(9:40) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to TEN 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.51 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 53, worth -3.14 EP
KICK -1.98 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP