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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 14 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(:28) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to NO 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-D.Harris to NO 38 for 8 yards (31-K.Byard, 48-B.Brinkley).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +0.66 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 31, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model