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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 65

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:52) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to TEN 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 14-K.Raymond to TEN 27 for 14 yards (52-C.Robertson).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.30 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 23, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model