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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 18 at the 99

New Orleans Saints 31 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(10:53) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to TEN 46, Center-49-Z.Wood. 14-K.Raymond to NO 42 for 12 yards (27-D.Washington; 48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -4.05 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.98 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 99, worth -6.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 53, worth -2.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model