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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 41

Tennessee Titans 28 – New Orleans Saints 38

What Actually Happened

(1:52) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 19-T.Sharpe (21-P.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.74 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 41, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP