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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 85

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 6-A.Cole punts 74 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-T.Sieg. 20-D.King to LAC 22 for 11 yards (10-R.Gafford).

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.03 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model