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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
@
LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2019-12-22 · 16:05 StubHub Center, Carson US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

OAK
39.0%
LAC
61.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV defense: +0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.102 vs Derek Carr (LV) +0.178 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

OAK 21
–
LAC 24
Projected margin: LAC by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

OAK

Richie Incognito G Out Ankle
Josh Jacobs RB Out Shoulder
Marquel Lee LB Out Toe

LAC

Russell Okung T Doubtful Groin
Justin Jackson RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 24
–
LAC 17

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:07 TD LV (11:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – LAC 0
  • Q2 01:57 TD LAC (1:57) 25-M.Gordon left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 7 – LAC 6
  • Q2 00:14 TD LV (:14) 4-D.Carr scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 13 – LAC 7
  • Q3 06:16 TD LV (6:16) 33-D.Washington left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 20 – LAC 7
  • Q3 01:08 TD LAC (1:08) 25-M.Gordon left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 21 – LAC 13
  • Q4 08:34 FG LV (8:34) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. OAK 24 – LAC 14
  • Q4 01:33 FG LAC (1:33) 4-M.Badgley 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. OAK 24 – LAC 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:56) 1-T.Long punts 41 yards to LV 21, Center-45-C.Mazza. 30-J.Richard to LV 29 for 8 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (9:31) 1-T.Long punts 51 yards to LV 15, Center-45-C.Mazza, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 44%

    (6:33) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:48) 1-T.Long punts 57 yards to LV 23, Center-45-C.Mazza. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 36 for 13 yards (34-D.Watt).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:33) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-T.Sieg. 20-D.King to LAC 10 for no gain (22-K.Nixon).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (14:12) 1-T.Long punts 51 yards to LV 16, Center-45-C.Mazza. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 28 for 12 yards (31-A.Phillips; 57-J.Brown).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 13 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:04) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to LAC 7, Center-47-T.Sieg. 20-D.King to LAC 17 for 10 yards (22-K.Nixon).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (7:31) 1-T.Long punts 44 yards to LV 18, Center-45-C.Mazza, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 13 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:05) 6-A.Cole punts 74 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-T.Sieg. 20-D.King to LAC 22 for 11 yards (10-R.Gafford).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 44%

    (1:03) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 30-J.Richard ran ob at LAC 32 for 10 yards (49-D.Tranquill).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 34%

    (3:09) 25-M.Gordon right end to LV 36 for 10 yards (50-N.Morrow).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 76%

    (8:34) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 20 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:49) 1-T.Long punts 41 yards to LV 24, Center-45-C.Mazza. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 32 for 8 yards (28-B.Facyson).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 25%

    (3:40) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 20-D.King.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 9 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (1:33) 4-M.Badgley 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.