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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 29

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.15 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP