Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 20 at the 65

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 24

(6:49) 1-T.Long punts 41 yards to LV 24, Center-45-C.Mazza. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 32 for 8 yards (28-B.Facyson).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.48 EP
74% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model