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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 9

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 24

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 4-M.Badgley 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.14 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 9, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model