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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 9 at the 42
Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0
What Actually Happened
(6:33) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.49 EP
-
33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.58 EP
- 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.47 EP
KICK
-0.94 EP
- 44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
- 56% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT
-0.44 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
