Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 80

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(4:48) 1-T.Long punts 57 yards to LV 23, Center-45-C.Mazza. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 36 for 13 yards (34-D.Watt).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model