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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 58

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-T.Sieg. 20-D.King to LAC 10 for no gain (22-K.Nixon).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.36 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP