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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(10:27) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 84-C.Brate for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 2, worth +0.69 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model