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Atlanta Falcons

7-9 HC Dan Quinn
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

7-9 HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2019-12-29 · 13:00 ET Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

ATL
43.1%
TB
56.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • TB defense: -0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Jameis Winston (TB): +0.110 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL defense: -0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ATL 22 15–29
–
TB 23 16–30
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 17

ATL

Jamon Brown G Out Illness
Adrian Clayborn DE Out Knee
Brandon Powell WR Out Wrist

TB

Beau Allen DT Out Ankle
Chris Godwin WR Out Hamstring
Jameis Winston QB Questionable right Thumb
Donovan Smith T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 28
–
TB 22

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:40 TD ATL (10:40) (Shotgun) 74-T.Sambrailo reported in as eligible. 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 74-T.Sambrailo for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – TB 0
  • Q1 07:00 FG ATL (7:00) 7-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. ATL 10 – TB 0
  • Q2 10:27 TD TB (10:27) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 84-C.Brate for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – TB 6
  • Q2 05:24 FG ATL (5:24) 7-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. ATL 13 – TB 7
  • Q2 03:21 TD TB (3:21) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TB 16 for -6 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul). FUMBLES (90-J.Pierre-Paul) [90-J.Pierre-Paul], RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at TB 9. 45-D.White for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. ATL 13 – TB 13
  • Q2 01:02 FG ATL (1:02) 7-Y.Koo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. ATL 16 – TB 14
  • Q2 00:19 TD TB (:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 19-B.Perriman for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 16 – TB 20
  • Q4 06:32 FG ATL (6:32) 7-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. ATL 19 – TB 22
  • Q4 00:03 FG ATL (:03) 7-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. ATL 22 – TB 22
  • Q5 10:00 TD ATL (10:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 84-C.Brate INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (50-J.Cominsky) at TB 27. 45-D.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 28 – TB 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (7:00) 7-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 71%

    (4:40) 9-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:09) 9-R.Allen punts 44 yards to TB 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens. PENALTY on TB-52-N.Dawkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 7 yards, enforced at TB 15.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:19) 8-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to TB 41, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-96-S.Acho.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 69%

    (:43) 40-K.Smith right guard to TB 33 for -1 yards (93-N.Suh).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (10:27) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 84-C.Brate for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 14 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

    (5:24) 7-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 17 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 80%

    (1:02) 7-Y.Koo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 81%

    (11:31) 9-M.Gay 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 9 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 53%

    (8:44) 9-R.Allen punts 26 yards to TB 12, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 93%

    (4:26) 9-M.Gay 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 90%

    (12:17) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 24-D.Freeman (92-W.Gholston).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:59) 8-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to ATL 40, Center-97-Z.Triner. 38-K.Barner to ATL 38 for -2 yards (51-K.Minter).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 83%

    (6:32) 7-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:11) 8-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to ATL 15, Center-97-Z.Triner. 38-K.Barner to ATL 20 for 5 yards (17-J.Watson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 83-R.Gage to ATL 43 for 6 yards (36-M.Stewart).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

    (:03) 7-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

    See the full breakdown →