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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 15

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 7-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model