4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 17 at the 27

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 7-Y.Koo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.94 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model