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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 25

Atlanta Falcons 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 7-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.83 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model