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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 63

Atlanta Falcons 19 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22

What Actually Happened

(1:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 83-R.Gage to ATL 43 for 6 yards (36-M.Stewart).

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.13 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -1.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model