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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 15

Atlanta Falcons 19 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22

What Actually Happened

(:03) 7-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +2.26 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 15, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth +0.02 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model