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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 89

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 8-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to TB 41, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-96-S.Acho.

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.01 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 89, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.41 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 46, worth -2.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model