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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 32
Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0
What Actually Happened
(:43) 40-K.Smith right guard to TB 33 for -1 yards (93-N.Suh).
The Three Options
GO
+1.94 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.69 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.78 EP
KICK
+0.37 EP
- 69% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
- 31% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT
-0.31 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
