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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 24

Cleveland Browns 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 4-A.Seibert 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.30 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 34, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model