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Cleveland Browns

HC Freddie Kitchens
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CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2019-12-29 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CLE
57.6%
CIN
42.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: -0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CLE offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Andy Dalton (CIN): -0.040 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CLE 25
–
CIN 21
Projected margin: CLE by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CLE

Odell Beckham WR Questionable Groin
Pharaoh Brown TE Questionable Illness
Kendall Lamm T Questionable Knee
Sheldon Richardson DT Questionable Back
Ricky Seals-Jones TE Questionable Illness
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Knee
Olivier Vernon DE Questionable Knee

CIN

William Jackson CB Out Shoulder
Stanley Morgan WR Doubtful Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 23
–
CIN 33

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:39 TD CLE (13:39) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 18-D.Ratley for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – CIN 0
  • Q1 09:56 TD CIN (9:56) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 87-C.Uzomah for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – CIN 6
  • Q1 04:48 TD CIN (4:48) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – CIN 13
  • Q2 10:15 TD CIN (10:15) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – CIN 19
  • Q2 06:58 FG CLE (6:58) 4-A.Seibert 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 10 – CIN 20
  • Q2 02:00 TD CLE (2:00) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 80-J.Landry for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – CIN 20
  • Q3 09:09 FG CIN (9:09) 4-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CLE 16 – CIN 23
  • Q4 14:19 TD CIN (14:19) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – CIN 29
  • Q4 07:23 TD CLE (7:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 22 – CIN 30
  • Q4 02:00 FG CIN (2:00) 4-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CLE 23 – CIN 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:01) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 62 yards to CIN 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 15 for 1 yard (55-T.Davis).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:12) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 17 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 86%

    (6:58) 4-A.Seibert 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 11 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:55) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 56 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-C.Harris. 30-D.Johnson to CLE 19 for 9 yards (50-Jo.Evans).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 13 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:33) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to CLE 29, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 30-D.Johnson.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:06) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 62 yards to CIN 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-20-T.Thomas.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 20 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 78%

    (9:09) 4-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:43) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to CIN 36, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 39 for 3 yards (97-P.Gustin; 47-C.Hughlett). PENALTY on CIN-55-L.Reynolds, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 36.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 20 at the 20
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 90%

    (7:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 80%

    (2:00) 4-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.