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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 80

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(1:33) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to CLE 29, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 30-D.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.91 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 80, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 37, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model