Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(1:06) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 62 yards to CIN 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-20-T.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.29 EP
53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -2.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model