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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 20 at the 29

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 4-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.42 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 39, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model