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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 20 at the 20

Cleveland Browns 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 30

What Actually Happened

(7:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.40 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 20, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP